This article is the first in a three-part series on ASAE ForesightWorks’ new driver of change, Truth Under Pressure.

We are in an era where facts are questioned and diverse narratives compete for legitimacy. Association leaders can no longer treat information integrity as a secondary concern. Rather, it has become a strategic leadership issue that directly affects your association’s reputation, influence, and member trust.

What does it look like to navigate the truth and truthful information today and into the next decade?

You, your staff, and your association’s volunteer leaders may have noticed that, increasingly, the truth is in the eye of the beholder, with various groups of people having differing perspectives on data and information—and that reality is creating a need to shift your strategies and operations today and into the future.

The ASAE ForesightWorks new driver of change, Truth Under Pressure, highlights how forces such as political polarization, a fracturing society, divergent information sources, and differing views of what constitutes reality will shape the operating environment for associations both as consumers and producers of information. This three-article series serves to introduce key factors of the driver. Part 1 outlines possible future scenarios. Part 2 explores potential impacts on associations. Part 3 addresses AI’s impact on the truth.

As we envision how perspectives of the truth might play out in the next decade, imagine these plausible future scenarios and consider how they might impact your association.

The Verified Web
Digital systems populate across the internet to become the default method of proving one’s identity and verifying content sources. These could appear as digital wallets or tags backed by blockchain audit trails. While misinformation and deepfakes might decline, we could also see a reduction in personal privacy and the exclusion of people who cannot or will not verify their identity. This could impact how your association approaches its communications, data privacy, and brand reputation.

Polarized Reality
Instead of mass media, information fractures into tightly bounded “narrative ecosystems,” each with its own influencers, trusted experts, and media outlets. This could create opportunities for highly engaged niche audiences, tailored education, and specialized programs. It could also lead to a decline in cross-community dialogue and erode collaboration.

Cognitive Contagion
Cheap, low-quality, AI-generated content floods the internet, polluting data sets and making fact-checking difficult. These tools simultaneously make it easy for illegitimate actors to fabricate false narratives and reputable small organizations to produce high-quality content at scale. As our ability to distinguish fact and fiction declines, we could encounter a collapse of trust in information and a paralysis in decision-making.

Regardless of what the future delivers, we need to take steps today to better prepare our associations to remain resilient in the face of a changing environment of truth. In our next article, we’ll explore critical implications for you as association leaders.

For additional insights on this topic, a list of suggested actions you can take today, and a set of questions for reflection, you can purchase the driver of change action brief here.