Shrinking enrollments, rising costs, and rapid technological change are converging, forcing colleges and universities to rethink their purpose and business models. The looming “enrollment cliff,” driven by a structural decline in the number of high school graduates, will only accelerate academic consolidation and competition. As institutions fight for survival, many are developing new educational and business models that might compete with associations.

At the center of this shift is credentialing. As universities seek to retain their relevance and generate new revenue, they are increasingly positioning themselves as places to pursue knowledge, develop workforce-ready skills, and acquire verified competencies. For associations, this signals that higher education institutions are no longer just a partner in professional development. They could become potential competitors.

In developing the updated ASAE ForesightWorks Higher Education 3.0 driver of change, two analysis sessions with association professionals explored new forecasts, trends, and strategic insights and developed insights and action steps to guide associations. Their perspectives directly informed the themes, risks, and strategic considerations presented below.

Who Gets to Define Workforce Competency?

The traditional value proposition of a college degree has been weakening for years. Rising tuition and mounting student debt have led students and employers to question the return on investment of higher education. At the same time, skills-based hiring is gaining traction, with employers placing greater emphasis on what candidates can do rather than where they studied. Alternative credentials, such as certifications and microcredentials, have proliferated. Often, they can be obtained faster and more cheaply, and they provide targeted pathways into the workforce.

Academic institutions have paid attention to this shift and are developing competency-based education strategies. In contrast to traditional models focused on completing a certain number of course hours, competency-based education measures learning by demonstrated mastery of specific skills. Advances in technology have made this model scalable and flexible, enabling modular, stackable learning experiences that can be delivered asynchronously and in hybrid formats. Generative AI is accelerating the shift, changing how content is delivered and redefining what it means to be proficient in many fields. Increasingly, professionals are expected not only to possess knowledge but also to work effectively with AI tools.

Defining competencies, validating skills, and aligning professional standards with real-world practice have long been core functions for many associations. What is changing is that universities are now moving into this same space by targeting working professionals with expanded continuing education programs and short-form credentials. This shift presents risks and opportunities for associations that have traditionally serviced this segment.

If universities successfully establish themselves as primary providers of competency-based credentials, associations risk losing ground in one of their most important value propositions. Credential relevance could erode. Education and certification revenue streams could come under pressure. Even membership models may be affected if professionals begin to look elsewhere for validation and advancement.

Education From Anywhere

Another force supporting academic transformation is that technology enables learning beyond the physical college campus to any place with an internet connection. As instruction becomes increasingly decoupled from physical spaces, universities are reimagining campuses as hubs of community, innovation, and economic development instead of purely instructional sites. This shift frees them to scale credentialing in ways that could overlap with association offerings.

Compete and Collaborate

To maintain a leadership position in their industries or professions, associations should consider strategies to compete with these new programs and collaborate with various stakeholders. To maintain your market advantage, be nimble and promote your authority. As technology reshapes job roles, continuously update competency frameworks for your profession or industry. Simultaneously, double down on the value of your credentials. In a crowded and confusing marketplace, trust becomes a defining advantage. Clearly communicating the rigor, standards, and real-world relevance behind credentials will be essential.

Look to collaborate with universities and nontraditional education providers to extend your reach and credibility. Employers are another important group with which to build partnerships. Convening industry leaders to identify emerging skills and knowledge gaps allows associations to act as a bridge between workforce needs and educational offerings.

Higher education’s transformation is far from complete, and significant uncertainty remains in public policy and AI advances. Regardless of how these play out, the boundary between academia and associations is narrowing, especially in credentialing. Associations will need to fully own their roles as standard-setters, validators, and connectors in a fragmented learning ecosystem. Those who proactively collaborate with educational institutions and employers to define emerging competencies and deliver trusted credentials will shape not just their professions but the future of work itself.

ASAE’s ForesightWorks driver of change Higher Education 3.0 has been revised for 2026 with updated forecasts, strategic insights, and recommended actions. You can purchase the updated driver as part of the Just the Updates: Summer 2026 collection. If you already own the Essentials Collection, the new version will appear automatically in your member account.