Noreena Hertz, associate director of the Centre for International Business at the University of Cambridge, has a warning for associations: "Organizations have become far too accepting of what 'experts' say, far too willing not to challenge their premises and ideas, and that isn't good, especially for society at large."
"One study of 80,000 forecasts done over a 30-year period by 250 political scientists, economists, historians, and others found these 'experts' didn't know what would happen any better than a monkey randomly throwing a dart on the board," says Hertz.
Yet "expert advice," usually from outsiders, continues to ground many organizations' actions and assumptions. Indeed, Hertz cites an Emory University experiment in which people had their brains scanned as they heard what they were told was "expert advice."
"It was remarkable that what you saw was the independent-thinking part of people's brains switch off," she says. "They trusted what the expert said, whether it was right or wrong. … I'm not saying traditional experts don't bring a whole host of things to the party—they do, and the best ones have great insights that are helpful—but we shouldn't seek their advice at the expense of valuable information and wisdom that either is inside an organization or more generally from people with experience."